The Information Gap Hollywood Can't Afford - Marathon Strategies

Risky Business

The Information Gap Hollywood Can’t Afford

Studios invest millions in talent, production, and awards campaigns. But when high-stakes decisions are made without complete information, the results can be devastating. In every case below, the information existed – it just wasn’t surfaced in time.

Marty Supreme
A24 | 2026 Awards Season
Investigative Gap
A24’s biggest hit earned 9 Oscar nominations, collected nearly $200 million in ticket sales, and was on pace to deliver Timothée Chalamet the Best Actor award. But just as awards season was picking up, decade-old misconduct allegations against director Josh Safdie resurfaced. On the Academy’s biggest night, it collected nothing.
Production$65MNot including global marketing costs
Nominations | Wins9 | 0No Oscars despite marketing push
The Information Gap

The on-set incident concerned sexual harassment allegations against Safdie’s producing partner and was reported years before production began on Marty Supreme. The story gained a second life in January, when the California Post’s inaugural cover asserted the incident led to a well-publicized split between Safdie and his brother Benny. Background research would have surfaced the initial reports, while confidential source interviews — structured, discreet conversations conducted by experienced investigators — would have augmented the record.

Emilia Pérez
Netflix | 2025 Awards Season
Digital Forensics Gap
Netflix invested millions in an Oscar campaign for a film that earned 13 nominations — the most of any film that year. When past Islamophobic, racist, and anti-diversity social media posts from star Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced mid-campaign, the studio had to pivot its entire awards strategy, pull Gascón from promotional materials, and shift focus to co-stars. As Variety noted, a studio “with its deep pockets and dozens of people working specifically on awards efforts should have caught them before investing millions.”
Production$16.5MNot including global marketing costs
Nominations | Wins13 | 2No Oscars for Gascón
The Information Gap

The posts were publicly visible on Gascón’s social media accounts from 2016 to 2021 — never deleted. A comprehensive digital forensics review — including historical social media analysis, archived content retrieval, and sentiment mapping — would have surfaced and contextualized this risk before a single dollar was committed to the campaign. This type of analysis requires specialized tools and investigative expertise that go well beyond a simple search.

The Flash
Warner Bros. | 2023
Digital Forensics + Investigative Gap
Warner Bros. and DC films invested over $300 million in what they hoped would be a franchise tentpole. Amidst years of production delays and script revisions, star Ezra Miller was arrested in multiple altercations, including one in which they appeared to choke a young woman before pushing her to the ground. The incident was caught on video and went viral on Twitter, contributing to the film’s historic box-office bomb.
Production$200–220MFilm budget
Marketing$65MGlobal promotion
Box Office$271MGross
Net Loss$155M+No Oscars despite marketing push
The Information Gap

The 2020 bar incident was captured on video and widely circulated online a full year before cameras rolled. A comprehensive digital forensics review — monitoring online activity, news archives, legal filings, and social media patterns — combined with confidential industry source interviews about on-set behavior, would have produced a clear risk profile. With that intelligence in hand, studio leadership could have weighed the risk before committing hundreds of millions.

Jonathan Majors
Disney / Marvel Studios | 2023
Investigative Gap
Majors was set to anchor Phase 4 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe as its core villain. In 2023, the actor was convicted of assaulting and harassing his former girlfriend, forcing the studio to cut ties and throwing years of plans into disarray. While Marvel had reportedly prepared for the possibility of Majors’ exit from the franchise when the case emerged, it was also limited in its ability to do rewrites due to the screenwriters strike. After years of preparation and untold millions invested, Majors’ character was ultimately scrapped.
Robert Downey Jr. Salary Premium$100Mvs. ~$10M Majors would have earned
Ant-Man Sequel Losses$100M+$200M budget, underperformed at $476M
Inflated Budget$450MProjected Doomsday production cost
The Information Gap

The economic cost of Majors’ conviction included a premium salary for Robert Downey Jr. to replace him, box office underperformance for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and an inflated budget for revisions to future Avengers films like Project Doomsday. In pretrial statements to the prosecution and in interviews with The New York Times, multiple past girlfriends accused Majors of emotional and physical abuse. Confidential source interviews with individuals within Majors’ circle may have surfaced this kind of character intelligence.

Armie Hammer
Disney / 20th Century Fox | 2021
Digital Forensics + Investigative Gap
In January 2021, disturbing private messages went viral, followed by misconduct allegations from multiple women. Hammer was dropped from five major productions in weeks. Disney’s Death on the Nile ($90M budget) couldn’t reshoot his role and had to release the film as-is — grossing $137M vs. its predecessor’s $353M.
Death on the Nile Losses$70MUnderperformed first Poirot film by $100M+
Project Replacements$10M+Estimated cost per project replacement
The Information Gap

While the leaked DMs were private, significant public signals existed: published interviews discussing extreme behavior, publicly liked social media content that raised questions, and a family member’s 2015 book documenting a multi-generational pattern of abuse. A thorough digital forensics review — analyzing the full digital footprint across platforms, cached content, and public-facing activity — combined with confidential background interviews, would have assembled a risk profile warranting further scrutiny before a franchise-level casting commitment.

Roseanne Barr
ABC / Disney | 2018
Digital Forensics Gap
ABC revived Roseanne to blockbuster numbers — 18 million viewers and $45 million in Season 1 ad revenue. Season 2, projected at $60 million more, was greenlit. Then a racist tweet led ABC to cancel its #1 show within hours. The network pivoted to an emergency spinoff (The Conners), which drew roughly 10 million viewers — a fraction of the original.
Lost Ad Revenue$60MProjected Season 2 (Kantar Media)
Lost Viewership8MViewers lost (18M to 10M spinoff)
The Information Gap

Barr had an extensive history of inflammatory social media posts, including wading into fringe conspiracy theories propagated by extremists and racist groups. Several of these posts were covered by the press prior to the reboot. A due-diligence investigation would have uncovered this content and contextualized its potential risk.

Closing the Information Gap

Marathon’s Integrated Approach to Reputational Due Diligence

Marathon Strategies combines investigative expertise with strategic communications — giving clients not just the intelligence, but the framework to act on it. Each engagement is tailored to the scope of the investment and the sensitivity of the risk.
1
Digital Forensics

Historical social media analysis, archived and deleted content recovery, cross-platform behavioral mapping, and risk contextualization.

2
Confidential Source Interviews

Structured, discreet conversations with industry contacts, colleagues, and former associates —conducted by experienced investigators.

3
On-the-Ground Investigations

In-person fieldwork, multi-jurisdiction research, and physical-location intelligence that goes beyond what any database can provide.

4
Crisis Preparedness

Response frameworks, messaging strategies, and rapid-response protocols — so the organization controls the narrative rather than reacting to it.

The Bottom Line

In every case above, the information existed. It just wasn’t surfaced in time. Marathon’s approach is designed to close that gap before the first dollar is committed — giving leadership the complete picture they need to make informed decisions about talent, partnerships, and major investments.

Invest Now or Pay Later

What Reputational Due Diligence Actually Costs
Do the Math

A comprehensive due diligence engagement represents a tiny fraction of the losses documented above. Vetting is a rounding error; a scandal can be catastrophic. In every case, the information existed — it just wasn’t surfaced in time.

“Sooner or later, the spotlight reveals everything. The only way to ensure the show goes on is to see it coming.”

— Phil Singer, California Business Journal, March 2026 Start a Conversation
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